Do we believe that the advance of robotics, automation and artificial intelligence will destroy millions of jobs and create economic havoc or will it create new wealth and new more rewarding jobs? Are we technology optimists or pessimists? For many with repetitive rules-based jobs, particularly in the manufacturing sector, the future looks bleak. For others with an ability to learn new skills and think creatively and analytically the future looks bright. The construction industry is moving in this direction – houses or parts of more complex buildings can be built in factories for site assembly, robots can lay bricks, giant 3D printers can make houses out of concrete and digital cutting machines can make complex objects.
The report JOBS LOST, JOBS GAINED: WORKFORCE TRANSITIONS IN A TIME OF AUTOMATION by the McKinsey Global Institute discusses the issue. On the optimistic side it states ‘Even with automation, the demand for work and workers could increase as economies grow, partly fuelled by productivity growth enabled by technological progress. Rising incomes and consumption especially in developing countries, increasing health care for aging societies, investment in infrastructure and energy, and other trends will create demand for work that could help offset the displacement of workers.’ The underlying assumption is of continuing global growth with the question being of how it is serviced.
But do we even really believe this? Are we not already well into period of economic adjustment that started with the crash of 2008? An ‘economy of less’ where unserviceable debt and growth in population, resource use and emissions meet the fixed limits of the planet. Or are we entering an economy of more? What side of this argument are we on and what will the collision of robotics, automation and artificial intelligence with the fixed limits of the planet look like? It’s going to get very interesting!